Please note that the commentary below is factual information provided to a group of readers as a web blog, and where an opinion is expressed by the author, it is GENERAL ADVICE only.
Weak investor sentiment on Friday night and through the weekend has pushed the AUD lower with the local currency down against all the major currencies. AUD/USD lost the most ground falling as much as 1% since Thursday afternoon. RBA Governor Lowe speaks this afternoon and is likely to start telegraphing a rate cut at the next RBA meeting on October 1st (two weeks from today). In fact the market is already pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut on October 1st. The reason for the further cut to interest rates, which would take local interest below 1%, is simply persistent weak economic data right across the board.
U.S stocks finished the session flat, while European stocks lost as much as 1.00%, with the French CAC the worst performer down 1.05% at the close of trade. Looking across markets more broadly and its interesting to note that the Shanghai/Shenzhen 300 and ASX 200 are the best performing markets in over the past year, up 14% and 9% respectively over the past 12 months. In contrast U.S equities are up a measly 1-2% over the same period.
As mentioned above RBA Governor Lowe speaks tonight around 8.00pm while U.S Consumer Confidence is due around midnight AEST.
AUD EXCHANGE RATES:
AUD/USD – 0.6745
AUD/GBP – 0.5416
AUD/EUR – 0.6131
AUD/NZD – 1.0733
AUD/JPY – 72.545
All Ords (XAO) – 6,861
Gold – A$2,246/oz
Silver – A$27.52/oz
WTI – US$58.28/barrel
DATA RELEASES TODAY:
AUD – RBA Gov Lowe Speaks at 7.55pm
USD - CB Consumer Confidence at midnight
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Senior Corporate FX Dealer
Phone Patrick - 0431 278 632
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