Compass Global Markets' Blog

Market Update - 18th March 2020 - AUD/USD Dips Below 0.6000 For First Time Since 2003

Posted by Patrick Downes on March 18, 2020 at 8:35 AM

Please note that the commentary below is factual information provided to a group of readers as a web blog, and where an opinion is expressed by the author, it is GENERAL ADVICE only.

AUD/USD Hits 0.59: 

What was probably inconceivable two months ago is now playing out in front of our eyes, the AUD has over the past month lost 500 points vs the Greenback in one of the sharpest declines on record. Lower interest rates as a result of Covid19 is the culprit, however with the economy already on unstable footing ahead of the Covid19 pandemic a solid nudge was always going to cause some damage to the Australian economy and by default the AUD. In fact AUD is down right across the board and this includes against the GBP, EURO, JPY and even NZD which threatens to fall below parity for the first time since the NZD was floated back in 1985.

The latest retail sales numbers out of the U.S overnight gives us a glimpse of what to expect down the track, with their latest retail numbers slumping by half a percent in the past month and likely to contract further in the short to medium term. We see prelim retail sales numbers out this morning, however it's probably too early to get a solid indication of the hit to the economy of Covid19.

AUS Government Stimulus:

The Australian Government has announced a number of measures to soften the financial blow of Covid19 including cash handouts and business payments and I would be expecting even more measures should we see the number of cases spike across Australia. Rudd's cash handout after the GFC certainly helped avoid a recession in Australia, however I'm not so sure these same measures will work this time around given the hit to tourism, education, retail sales etc etc. The hits will be across the board and industries which appeared solid going into 2020 may even struggle. These are unprecedented times for sure.

AUD EXCHANGE RATES:

AUD/USD – 0.5990

AUD/GBP – 0.4950

AUD/EUR – 0.5435

AUD/NZD – 1.0064

AUD/JPY – 64.501

OTHER MARKETS:

All Ords (XAO) – 5,332

Gold – A$2,548/oz

Silver –  A$21.05/oz

WTI – US$27.15 barrel

DATA RELEASES TODAY:

AUD - Prelim Retail Sales m/m at 11.30am

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Patrick Downes

Senior Corporate FX Dealer

Phone Patrick - 0431 278 632 

  Email Patrick: patrick@compassmarkets.com

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 DISCLOSURE AND DISCLAIMER - GENERAL ADVICE WARNING
The information provided in this report has been prepared without taking into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether our products are appropriate for you and read the FSG and PDS which are available on this website.
This report and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person.
All references to prices, amounts and currency are in Australian dollars unless otherwise noted.
This report is provided for Australian residents only and is not intended for use by residents of any other country.

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