Compass Global Markets' Blog

26th September 2016 - Weekly Currency Market Report.

Posted by Thomas Su on September 27, 2016 at 10:25 AM

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The Market in Brief:

                                • AUD up against the majors
                                • RBA Minutes "Stable outlook for interest rates despite falls in business investment."
                                • JPY BOJ increases easing but leaves negative rates on hold as forecast. 
                                • USD Fed leaves rates on hold at 0.50% and hints of December rise.
                                • GBP down as BOE commences 10bn corporate bond buying program for the next 18 months.

Market Events Due:

                              • EUR German IFO business climate (Mon) ECB President Draghi speaks (Tue and Thur)
                              • USD CB Consumer confidence and Durable Goods Orders (Wed) fed Chair Yellen testifies, Final GDP q/q and Unemployment claims (Thur)
                              • GBP Current account and Q2 GDP 3rd estimate (Fri)
                              • JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda speaks (Mon and Thur) 


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AUDUSD: The AUD staged a solid recovery against the USD last week, up almost 2%. Last Thursday it was up 2.6%, falling just 20 points short of the solid resistance that has held since March this year. Importers can target those levels again. The Fed left rates on hold as widely expected but there were 3 Fed dissenters with Barclays and BNP also calling for a hike. US data is still mixed but it is slowly trending to the upside.

AUDEUR: The AUD posted a 1.2% gain against the EUR after being up 1.8% on Thursday. It fell just short of it's high 2 weeks ago so importers can target that level again which is 50 points higher than where we are now. Above that the long term resistance that has held since March this year is 120 points away. 

AUDGBP: AUD posted its second consecutive weekly gain against the GBP up just over 2%. It is now up almost 4.5% in just 7 trading days representing a very good opportunity for importers. The post Brexit high sits 100 points higher.

AUDNZD: The AUD posted a solid gain against the NZD up just over 2% as forecast. The last couple of times AUD has been down here we have seen solid rallies in very short periods. There is short term resistance at these levels and given AUD has had 8 consecutive up days against the Kiwi there should be some sort of correction. 

AUDJPY: The AUD closed the week up 0.8% against the JPY after 2 consecutive down weeks. This currency pair has been in a relatively tight range for the last 8 weeks. At the moment it is still towards the bottom end of that range. Importers are looking at resistance 150 points higher.

AUDCHF: AUD closed the week almost 1% higher against the CHF. Similar to the JPY it too has been stuck in a relatively tight range since March. The solid resistance that has held in place since November last year is only 100 points higher.

Compass Global Markets Team.

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