Aussie employment data came in on expectations yesterday, stringing together a fourth month in a row of strong jobs growth, led by full-time jobs. The economic data in conjunction with surging commodities prices and a more hawkish (positive) than usual RBA minutes on Tuesday sees AUD/USD very close to the highest levels we've been in over two years. The high print on AUD/USD was 0.7990 yesterday with the currency pair just failing to break that psychological 0.8000, a level most thought impossible only two weeks ago...but if I've learnt anything about markets and the Aussie dollar over the past ten years, its that anything is possible and certainly to quote the famed precious metals investor Rick Rule "bear markets are the authors of bull markets and bull markets the authors of bear markets." What this means is essentially with the Aussie dollar in a bear market since April 2013 it certainly appears as though something has turned and that something is a combination of inflation and stronger than anticipated commodities prices, both of which are certainly supporting the notion that the next move from the RBA will be a rate hike as opposed to a rate cut.
Ahead today we have RBA Assistant Governors Debelle and Bullock delivering speeches this afternoon and whilst they obviously don't have the same impact on the Aussie dollar as the Governor himself, we could still see some movement in the Aussie given the seemingly swift change in rhetoric from the RBA in Tuesday's meeting minutes. Have a fantastic weekend.
AUD EXCHANGE RATES:
AUD/USD – 0.7955
AUD/GBP – 0.6133
AUD/EUR – 0.6840
AUD/NZD – 1.0753
AUD/JPY – 89.007
DATA RELEASES TODAY:
AUD - RBA Ass. Gov's. Debelle & Bullock speak at 1.40pm
***Above rates are indicative wholesale rates and intended as a guide only***
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Senior Corporate FX Dealer
Phone Patrick - 0431 278 632