Compass Global Markets' Blog

29th August 2016 - Weekly Currency Market Report.

Posted by Thomas Su on August 29, 2016 at 11:08 AM

 

The Market in Brief:

                        • AUD down V USD, GBP and NZD and up V EUR, JPY, CHF and CAD
                        • GBP data as expected and the best performing currency of the week
                        • USD Hawkish speech by Janet Yellen sees USD strengthen Friday night whilst US data prints above expectations
                        German data disappoints

Market Events Due:

                      • AUD Building Approvals (Tue) Private Capital Expenditure and Retail Sales (Thur)
                      • USD CB Consumer Confidence ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Wed) ISM Manufacturing PMI Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (Fri)
                      • GBP Manufacturing PMI (Thur) Construction PMI (Fri)
                      CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Thur)
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Market Update - 26th August 2016 - Aussie Dollar Little Changed Through Week, US Fed Chair Yellen To Speak @ Jackson Hole

Posted by Patrick Downes on August 26, 2016 at 10:11 AM

Stocks and commodities went it different directions overnight with equities marginally lower, while commodities edged higher. The exceptions however were the German DAX which fell nearly a percent and iron ore prices which after a stellar run have moderated or stalled just above US$60 a tonne.

It's been a week lacking any important economic data and so the Aussie dollar in the scheme of things hasnt moved a great deal. AUD/USD which opened Monday at 0.7603 is now trading just 20 points higher. AUD/GBP is down 1% since Monday while AUD/EUR is up around half a percent.

Tonight we have a speech from Fed Chairwomen Janet Yellen so we'll have to watch markets closely for any hints of a return to more tightening monetary policy. Some suggest there might be some hints in the speech about the next interest rate hike but we'll have to wait and see.  Have a great weekend.

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Market Update - 24th August 2016 - AUD/GBP Retraces Lower Again, AUD/USD Holding Above 0.7600 Ahead of Construction Figures

Posted by Patrick Downes on August 24, 2016 at 9:29 AM

AUD/GBP lost another one percent overnight extending losses to nearly 4% since August 16th when the currency pair hit a nearly three year high following Brexit. The GBP was also aided by a boost in equity prices overnight which saw European stocks advance by as much 1.1% while U.S equities were up an average 0.2%. Overall positive sentiment and cheap money is continuing to drive equity markets to dizzying heights, particularly in the U.S with some analysts suggesting U.S equities could be again in bubble territory and due for a correction. I tend to agree.

AUD/USD has done little overnight but does appear to be holding above key support at 0.7600 - over the course of the month AUD/USD has traded mostly between 0.7600 and 0.7750, with 0.7750-ish the highest level in the past 4 months. Make of that what you will.

No data out today again other than some low level Aussie construction work figures. Construction work has been contracting for the most part since early 2014, with the trend likely to continue with this latest reading.

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Market Update - 23rd August 2016 - AUD/GBP Retraces Lower, Just Holding On To 0.5800

Posted by Patrick Downes on August 23, 2016 at 9:21 AM

The only notable mover overnight was AUD/GBP which retraced lower following weeks of negative sentiment surrounding the GBP and Brexit vote. AUD/GBP has now paired gains by about 3% from just below 0.6000 to where we are this morning just holding on to 0.5800.

AUD/USD and AUD/EUR remain around levels seen yesterday and the trend looks set to continue in the absence of any economic news or data today or this week. Stocks were mostly flat or fell overnight while commodity prices fell again excluding iron ore, which has continued a spectacular rebound from prices around US$40 a tonne to where we are this morning just on US$61 a tonne.

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22nd August 2016 - Weekly Currency Market Report.

Posted by Thomas Su on August 22, 2016 at 12:49 PM

 

The Market in Brief:

                      • AUD down across the board against the majors
                      • AUD Jobs print above expectations and unemployment down a tick to 5.7% 
                      • GBP data above expectations and GBP rallies across the board.
                      • USD data prints above expectations with mixed reactions against majors
                      • NZD Kiwi data shoots the lights out
                      EUR best performing currency (go figure) slightly ahead of NZD

Market Events Due:

                    • JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda speaks (Mon)
                    • EUR German IFO Business Climate (Thur)
                    • USD Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims (Thur) Prelim GDP (Fri) Fed Chair Yellen speaks
                    GBP Second Estimate GDP (Fri)
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Market Update - 22nd August 2016 - Iron Ore Keeps Bucking The Trend Supporting AUD Above 0.7600

Posted by Patrick Downes on August 22, 2016 at 9:06 AM

The Aussie dollar lost ground again Friday extending losses against the Greenback to about two percent since reaching highs above 0.7750 on the 10th of July. The falls coincide with falls across European and U.S equities along with commodities which have been coming off the boil the last few sessions. Iron ore however continues to buck the trend rallying back above US$61 a tonne and defying all dire estimates for the local super commodity.

With very little local and international economic data out today or this week the Aussie will likely tread water within a range of 0.7600-0.7700 barring any dramatic news or unforeseen economic event. As importers I'd suggest keeping an eye out for buying opportunities if the AUD/USD tracks back towards 0.7750.

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Market Update - 19th August 2016 - Local Employment Numbers Yesterday Boost Aussie Dollar

Posted by Patrick Downes on August 19, 2016 at 9:27 AM

Aussie equities lost around half a percent in thin trade yesterday but we look set for a better day on local markets thanks to a solid session for European and U.S equities overnight. To currencies and we see the so called 'Aussie' up marginally vs. the Greenback and Euro but down again against a resurgent GBP which has now recovered about 3% since August 16 when it traded at a high of about 0.5980.

Local employment data yesterday provided the Aussie with a short lived boost with the local currency gaining as much as half a percent following the announcement that the unemployment rate dipped to 5.7% and some 26,000 new jobs were created in July (well above the forecast of around 10,000).

Other than that news there is only CAD retail sales and CPI figures due tonight, which will have nearly no impact on the Aussies current direction.

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Market Update - 18th August 2016 - Aussie Falls For A Second Day, Local Employment Data Due At 11.30am

Posted by Patrick Downes on August 18, 2016 at 9:33 AM

The Aussie dollar has lost ground again overnight vs. most of the majors succumbing to nothing else but profit taking and a bit of key level resistance. However from a broader perspective, the Aussie dollar is still trading near four month highs vs. the Greenback and EURO, while remaining near three year highs vs. the GBP.

Commodity markets mostly rallied overnight, but iron did fall marginally pegging back a dollar or two but remaining above US$60 a tonne - still well above most of the forecasts for the metal around US$40-US$50 a tonne. Equity markets were mixed with U.S equities mostly flat while European equities went backwards for a second straight session after a solid couple of weeks of gains.

Ahead today is local employment data and the all important unemployment rate, both are due at 11.30am this morning and both are expected to improve marginally from last months reading. Economists are expecting to see about 10,000 new jobs created, hopefully mostly full time jobs, while the unemployment rate should continue to hover just below 6% - around the 5.8% mark. It goes without saying a cracking number this morning will put further wind in the sails for the Aussie dollar and vice versa, so again probably prudent to look at taking some risk off the table and hedging some of your upcoming USD, EUR or GBP exposures.

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Market Update - 17th August 2016 - Aussie Continues To Cruise Along In Abscence Of Any Negative Macro News

Posted by Patrick Downes on August 17, 2016 at 9:41 AM

Good morning all - I'm back from Queensland and back into the swing of things this morning. Apologies if I was a little slower than normal to reply to phone calls and emails over the past 6 days - I know I set the bar pretty high in terms of replying in minutes not hours (as some brokers do).

While I've been away the Aussie dollar has continued to gather momentum charging past 0.7650 and hitting a high of around 0.7750 on the wholesale market on three occasions over the past week. Equities and the Aussie dollar remain buoyant thanks to strong commodity prices and a distinct lack of any negative global economic news, but of course that can all change quite rapidly and so I would suggest taking some forward cover (not all) at current levels. Hedging your bets is always better than not hedging at all.

Its a quiet day today in terms of data releases with only U.K employment figures and average earnings due tonight. Expectations are for both to grow marginally so this could provide a bit more forward momentum for the GBP which has already recovered around 1.5% vs. the AUD.

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16th August 2016 - Weekly Currency Market Report.

Posted by Thomas Su on August 16, 2016 at 11:20 AM

 

The Market in Brief:

                    • AUD up V USD and GBP, down V EUR, JPY, NZD,CAD, flat V CHF.
                    • CNY Trade balance improves while industrial production falls 
                    • GBP UK data disappoints and GBP weakens.
                    • NZD RBNZ cuts rates by 0.25% as expected.
                    • USD US PPI and Retail sales woeful on Friday night but USD strengthens.

Market Events Due:

                  • AUD RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (Tue) Unemployment Rate (Thur)
                  • GBP CPI yoy (Tue) Average Earnings and Claimant Count Change (Wed) Retail Sales (Thur)
                  • USD Building Permits and CPI (Tue) FOMC Meeting Minutes, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment claims (Thur)
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